The Credit Strategist Blog We are living in a political version of TINA - there is no viable alternative to a political system driving us toward a financial crisis.
I think you have known about this fact for quite a while now. I am not that smart but have understood since post GFC that we are on a march to ruin. However, this whole hot mess has gone over for almost a decade more than I thought it would.
I read a prediction over 2 decades ago the US Debt would double about every 8 years and the crisis point would arrive in the 2020s. The prediction was from Egon von Greyerz, formerly of Matterhorn but now Von Greyerz gold. Indeed the deficit did almost double from 5.7 Trillion in 2001 to 10 T by 2009. He said it would double again by 2018 and it absolutely did; to 20T by 2017! He then said it would DOUBLE again to 40T by 2026. Well here we are in 2025 and we are already at $37 Trillion!!!!!! I would suggest that if we do see a recession starting this year as some continue to claim, the Government will easily spend another 1-2 Trillion to address it. Mr Egon Von Greyerz suggests the fuse is most definitely lit and we are unlike to see the next doubling without collapse. His view is that only gold will save you.
My Swiss based Wealth advisors (who deal only in precious metals now) say the same. They have been advising for about 4 years now to put 50% of one's wealth into gold. They are now saying that 80% is essential and to ensure NO wealth is stored within your tax domicile.
Michael should clearly nail his own flag to the (investment) mast for his readers. We probably only have another few years to go before it all goes pear shaped. When that happens, the Government, ANY Government will do what it has to preserve law and order and attempt stabilize the collapse. Social Security and Medicare will be drastically cut. Taxes will drastically rise. People with wealth, (that will include anyone who is a HNW investor and not just the VHNW ones) will find they have a large target on their back........
To quote the young and incredibly sharp Lyn Alden: NOTHING STOPS THIS TRAIN
Gold maybe as a store of wealth but is there also a chance that the dollar gets devalued as a reserve currency, that some form of non-government stablecoin takes its place. I’m watching Peter Thiel’s new stablecoin bank. The GENIUS Act is the first step of a real shift. I’m worried about pensions and target date funds with bond liability. Most people I talk to worry about Social Security but don’t consider what happens as first Medicaid and then Medicare lose funding.
Dalio has also talked about at least three economic cycles all currently converging/peaking this decade. Honestly I don't know why he's bothering to try to influence politicians to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic (cutting spending and raising taxes)---theres no real good solution to such a high debt (about $350,000 per working taxpayer)other than some calamity causing a reset/global loan forgiveness.
I'm trying focus on better scenarios after the reset: treating Social Security more like a diversified pension fund rather than relying on t-bills and finally starting a simplified national healthcare system (ie-Medicare for All) to reign in crazy medical prices.
I think you have known about this fact for quite a while now. I am not that smart but have understood since post GFC that we are on a march to ruin. However, this whole hot mess has gone over for almost a decade more than I thought it would.
I read a prediction over 2 decades ago the US Debt would double about every 8 years and the crisis point would arrive in the 2020s. The prediction was from Egon von Greyerz, formerly of Matterhorn but now Von Greyerz gold. Indeed the deficit did almost double from 5.7 Trillion in 2001 to 10 T by 2009. He said it would double again by 2018 and it absolutely did; to 20T by 2017! He then said it would DOUBLE again to 40T by 2026. Well here we are in 2025 and we are already at $37 Trillion!!!!!! I would suggest that if we do see a recession starting this year as some continue to claim, the Government will easily spend another 1-2 Trillion to address it. Mr Egon Von Greyerz suggests the fuse is most definitely lit and we are unlike to see the next doubling without collapse. His view is that only gold will save you.
My Swiss based Wealth advisors (who deal only in precious metals now) say the same. They have been advising for about 4 years now to put 50% of one's wealth into gold. They are now saying that 80% is essential and to ensure NO wealth is stored within your tax domicile.
Michael should clearly nail his own flag to the (investment) mast for his readers. We probably only have another few years to go before it all goes pear shaped. When that happens, the Government, ANY Government will do what it has to preserve law and order and attempt stabilize the collapse. Social Security and Medicare will be drastically cut. Taxes will drastically rise. People with wealth, (that will include anyone who is a HNW investor and not just the VHNW ones) will find they have a large target on their back........
To quote the young and incredibly sharp Lyn Alden: NOTHING STOPS THIS TRAIN
Gold maybe as a store of wealth but is there also a chance that the dollar gets devalued as a reserve currency, that some form of non-government stablecoin takes its place. I’m watching Peter Thiel’s new stablecoin bank. The GENIUS Act is the first step of a real shift. I’m worried about pensions and target date funds with bond liability. Most people I talk to worry about Social Security but don’t consider what happens as first Medicaid and then Medicare lose funding.
"History doesn't repeat but it rhymes".
Dalio has also talked about at least three economic cycles all currently converging/peaking this decade. Honestly I don't know why he's bothering to try to influence politicians to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic (cutting spending and raising taxes)---theres no real good solution to such a high debt (about $350,000 per working taxpayer)other than some calamity causing a reset/global loan forgiveness.
I'm trying focus on better scenarios after the reset: treating Social Security more like a diversified pension fund rather than relying on t-bills and finally starting a simplified national healthcare system (ie-Medicare for All) to reign in crazy medical prices.
You meant Deficit/GDP ratio?
"They believe we are likely to have an economic crisis unless we reduce the Debt/GDP ratio to 3% from its current level of 6-7%."