The Unhappy Few

“Periods of stability (or of tranquility) of a modern capitalist economy are transitory.”

Hyman Minsky1

   As one of the unhappy few who forecast a down year for the S&P 500 in 2015 and 2016, I clearly wasn’t unhappy enough. Despite the S&P eking out a 1.38% total return last year, most stocks experienced a stealth bear market that deepened considerably in January. Having hit my year-end 2015 target two weeks too late and my 2016 year-end target 50 weeks too early, I am doing what I should have done in January and reducing my 2016 S&P 500 forecast from 1875-1900 to 1650-1750 – meaning that the market will decline to that level sometime this year. It won’t do so in a straight line and we may shortly see a recovery rally, but the overall direction of stocks is down. This target provides for only another 12% decline and may be too timid as well, so I reserve the right to revisit this target if markets turn out to be even unhappier than me. We are in a bear market triggered by the slowdown in China, the collapse….Continue Reading

January Special  EditionSPCThumbJAN2016.jpg

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